Figures for a number of countries and territories have been estimated by the Secretariat. A comprehensive overview of the latest developments in world trade, covering the details of merchandise trade by product and trade in commercial services While world . These declines are historically large, but could have been much worse. How these scenarios were generated is discussed in a background document that can be downloaded on the WTO website. Only imports for Other Regions continued rising with year‑on‑year growth for each quarter of between 1.9% and 4.9% in 2019. Managing supply chain disruption is a challenge for both global and local enterprises and requires a risk-versus-economic efficiency calculation on the part of every company. Share Details. More data available at http://data.wto.org/. In terms of volumes, we estimate a contraction of global trade in 2020 to 12.7 billion metric tons or by 11.2% year-on-year. Projections for GDP based on scenarios simulated with WTO Global Trade Model. Estimates of the expected recovery in 2021 are equally uncertain, with outcomes depending largely on the duration of the outbreak and the effectiveness of the policy responses. The predicted CAGR for the period 2021-2030 equals 3.5%. World trade in goods recovers in the second half of 2020, but trade in service lags Source: WTO and UNCTAD. United States International Trade Commission . Merchandise Trade Data Availability By Country. Under these circumstances, forecasting requires strong assumptions about the progress of the disease and a greater reliance on estimated rather than reported data. The trade balance is calculated as the difference between the values of exports and imports. Tweet. The wide range of possibilities for the predicted decline is explained by the unprecedented nature of this health crisis and the uncertainty around its precise economic impact. Label. International Trade Data Sources. Volume of world merchandise exports, 2020 Q4. Regional Workshop on International Merchandise Trade Statistics International Trade Statistics: Edge of Tomorrow Nur-Sultan, Republic of Kazakhstan 14-15 November 2019 . Future trade performance as summarized in Table 1 is thus best understood in terms of two distinct scenarios(1): (1) a relatively optimistic scenario, with a sharp drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020, and (2) a more pessimistic scenario with a steeper initial decline and a more prolonged and incomplete recovery. The World Bank, OECD and IMF have all released forecasts showing significant slowdowns in global trade and GDP; all are broadly consistent with the WTO's forecast for the current year. The economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably invites comparisons to the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Methodology for the WTO trade forecast of April 8 2020. The value of global merchandise exports dropped to US$17.6 trillion in 2020, falling by 7.5 per cent compared to 2019. Policy decisions have been critical in softening the ongoing blow to output and trade, and they will continue to play an important role in determining the pace of economic recovery. International Merchandise Trade, Preliminary, Australia. Note: Headline GDP figures from OECD and IMF are at purchasing power parity while figures from the World Bank and WTO are weighted at market exchange rates. This possibility is illustrated by the dotted green line in Chart 1, which would see trade growth for 2021 come in at closer to 5%, which would leave it well below the pre-pandemic trajectory. World Trade Organization, and World Bank GDP estimates. Tweet. Merchandise trade value of Russia with China 2007-2020, by flow. The volume of merchandise trade shrank by 3% year‑on‑year in the first quarter according to WTO statistics. Details on merchandise and commercial services trade developments are presented in Appendix Tables 1 through 4 and can be downloaded from the WTO Data Portal at data.wto.org. Increased purchases of consumer durables could be seen as a bellwether signalling renewed consumer confidence as lockdowns are lifted and economies start to revive. Trade: export value worldwide 1950-2020. 2018 and most of 2019, global merchandise trade values were showing signs of recovery in late 2019 and early 2020, when the global economy was hit by the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. World merchandise trade is predicted to grow 7.2% this year. Merchandise World is a unique concept which combines a traditional exhibition, a networking event and (optional) appointment booking. Trade in the fourth quarter was down by 1.0% year-on-year and by 1.2% compared to the third quarter of 2019. We need to lay the foundations for a strong, sustained and socially inclusive recovery. Maritime trade volumes expanded by only 0.5 per cent in 2019, down from 2.8 per cent in 2018 to reach a total of 11.08 billion tons. Label. In its trade statistics and trade forecast 2021, the WTO estimates world trade in merchandise, or goods, will grow 8% in volume in 2021, after falling 5.3% in 2020. 31 March 2021 - Annual (year 2020), quarterly and monthly updates for merchandise trade and commercial services values (including estimates). World merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 after falling 5.3% in 2020, a smaller decline than previously estimated. International merchandise trade, 2020. The World Bank's recent forecast would see global output decline by 5.2% in 2020, falling between the WTO's optimistic and pessimistic range. Source: WTO Secretariat for trade and consensus estimates for historical GDP. The world's largest bilateral flows of merchandise trade run between China and the United States of America, and between their respective neighbouring economies. Car sales in Western Europe and the United States were still down sharply in May compared to last year, but declines were smaller than in the previous month. ; Trade growth will likely slow to 4.0% in 2022, with the total volume of global trade remaining below the pre-pandemic trend. Found insideThe World Trade Organization estimates12 that world merchandise trade volume will shrink by 9.2% in 2020 compared to the previous year due to the health ... Note: Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction. The EU, the United States and China accounted for 43 % of world trade in goods in 2019. The latter has been avoided, it says, and trade only needs to grow by 2.5% per quarter for the rest of this year to meet the optimistic projection. Below are the world's top export countries that shipped the highest dollar value in exports during 2020. After the financial crisis of 2008-09, trade never returned to its previous trend, represented by the dotted grey line in the same chart. Monthly Trade Trends December 2020-January 2021. And if countries work together, we will see a much faster recovery than if each country acts alone.". Quarterly data not available. In Africa, rocketing imports in Nigeria (+28 per cent) marked a striking deviation from the overall trend. Trade growth could then rebound to 3.0 percent in 2020. Problems viewing this page? Hong Kong is the world's freest economy. A comprehensive overview of the latest developments in world trade, covering the details of merchandise trade by product and trade in commercial services Global and regional merchandise trade have faced significant downward pressure throughout 2019 and 2020. Found inside – Page 1254 See WTO, World Trade Statistical Review 2020, Table A7. Note that this ranking is on the basis of world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU27 trade. Found inside – Page 52... scenarioГ in which the volume of world merchandise trade in 2020 would contract by 13%, and a 'pessimistic scenarioГ with a real contraction by 32%. ESG said the WTO has affirmed that world trade merchandise trade volumes are now unlikely to reach the worst-case scenario of a 32 per cent contraction projected back in April 2020. The category of “Other commercial services” recorded the strongest growth with a 3% increase in 2019, followed by travel and goods-related services at 1%. Exports; Imports; Total Trade; Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade. The main objective of the workshop is to develop a strategic action a plan in the field of international trade statistics that will provide users with up-to-date data relevant to contemporary challenges, outline new . The position of China among the largest trade partners of the EU in 2020 can be seen in Figure 5. The COVID‑19 pandemic and associated containment efforts intensified in the second half of March. Found inside – Page 30Over the past few decades, the import share of China in world merchandise ... East Asia has become the biggest merchandise trade market for South Asia, ... In April, the WTO had predicted a decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020 between 13 percent and 32 percent as the coronavirus . . Label. A comprehensive overview of the latest developments in world trade, covering the details of merchandise trade by product and trade in commercial services Traditional fair trade, particularly for handcrafted goods, was designed to fight poverty through commerce and long-term partnerships. But restrictions on movement and social distancing to slow the spread of the disease mean that labour supply, transport and travel are today directly affected in ways they were not during the financial crisis. Monthly Trade Trends February-March 2021. Commodity prices - March 2020. Share Details. Goods and services balance, 2019. Found inside – Page 2(April 2021 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1). Similarly, global merchandise trade rebounded strongly in the third quarter of 2020 from the collapse in the ... While, world trade in commercial services totaled $5.89 trillion USD, which represented a 22.1% increase. As in 2008-09, governments have again intervened with monetary and fiscal policy to counter the downturn and provide temporary income support to businesses and households. In 2019, 811 million TEUs of containers were handled in ports worldwide. Meanwhile, the dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2019 fell by 3% to US$ 18.89 trillion. "The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself.”. Reporter. World merchandise trade 2000-35. Note: Preliminary estimates based on quarterly statistics. Indices of new export orders derived from Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) are particularly useful in this regard. . A comprehensive overview of the latest developments in world trade, covering the details of merchandise trade by product and trade in commercial services Found insideEconomics is about understanding the rational behaviour of economic agents (households, firms, industries and government) in their decisions to achieve best outcomes of their goals and aspirations. trade, investment, growth and employment. Although purchases of consumer durables such as automobiles fell sharply earlier in the crisis (Chart 5), other economic sectors have shown signs of resilience in recent weeks. If so, please contact webmaster@wto.org giving details of the operating system and web browser you are using. Found inside – Page 8Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, world merchandise trade is projected to fall by 9 percent in 2020 (WTO Trade Forecast, October 2020), and services trade to ... . This Pocket Guide contains selected tables and graphs outlining the current state and recent developments in the EU's foreign trade. By transforming the large volume of primary trade data into an accessible, user-friendly, web-based format, Trade Map provides indicators on export performance, international demand, alternative markets and the role of competitors. In contrast, world commercial services trade increased in 2019, with exports in dollar terms rising by 2% to US$ 6.03 trillion. World trade and GDP; Merchandise trade volume; Primary commodity prices; Exchange rates; Value of world trade; COVID-19 and trade; Outlook for 2020; Data . Merchandise exports as per cent of gross domestic product, 2019, (Trillions of United States dollars, seasonally adjusted), Merchandise trade annual growth rates, 2019. Monthly. Source: WTO Secretariat for trade and consensus estimates for historical GDP. Sales of consumer electronics have thus far held up better than might have been expected, supporting international trade in these products. In comparison to our prior forecast, it is lower by USD -3,037.1 billion or 18.5%. These should be viewed as explorations of different possible trajectories for the crisis rather than specific predictions of future developments. This would be the biggest fall in merchandise trade since 2009, when trade fell by 22%. Definitive figures can be found in the online database. checkTranslation(news_ref);
In 2019, goods worth US$472 billion were imported by the United States from China. Source: JPMorgan/IHS Markit. In 2020, Hong Kong's Position in World Merchandise Trade in terms of. The Year in Trade 2020 . However, if world GDP instead contracts by the World Bank's estimated 5.2% with a trade decline of 13.4%, the elasticity would only be 2.6. Between 2018 and 2019, the transition economies’ trade balance went down from +US$183 billion to +US$138 billion. This is true of information technology services, demand for which has boomed as companies try to enable employees to work from home and people socialise remotely. For example, according to China's customs statistics, the country's exports of automatic data processing machines, including computers, were up 30% year-on-year in US dollar terms in April. 3 Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export. Finally, much of the decline in output has been concentrated in non‑tradeable services such as hospitality, personal services and entertainment, which tend to be less import‑intensive than manufacturing. 2 Imports are valued f.o.b. Container port throughput also appears to have staged a partial recovery in June compared to May (Chart 3). In this case, spending on investment goods and consumer durables could resume at close to previous levels once the crisis abates. checkTranslation(news_ref);
The WTO's 20 April annual trade forecast, in light of the large degree of uncertainty around the pandemic’s severity and economic impact, set out two plausible paths: a relatively optimistic scenario in which the volume of world merchandise trade in 2020 would contract by 13%, and a pessimistic scenario in which trade would fall by 32%. In Q4 2020 global trade in goods grew by about 8 per cent on a quarter-over-quarter basis while trade in services stagnated at Q3 2020 levels. The latter has been avoided, it says, and trade only needs to grow by 2.5% per quarter for the rest of this year to meet the optimistic projection. Merchandise exports to economies in the Arab World (% of total merchandise exports) Merchandise exports to low- and middle-income economies in Europe & Central Asia (% of total merchandise exports) . DataBank Microdata Data Catalog. However, it is also useful to recall that complex supply chain disruption can occur as a result of localized disasters such hurricanes, tsunamis, and other economic disruptions. Monetary, fiscal and trade policy choices will play a significant role in determining the pace of recovery.(1). Note: Trade balances do not add up to zero at world level due to CIF included in imports and cross-country differences in compilation methods. Source: WTO/UNCTAD and WTO Secretariat estimates. World merchandise trade is set to plummet by between 13 and 32% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Actual outcomes could easily be outside of this range, either on the upside or the downside. If so, please contact webmaster@wto.org giving details of the operating system and web browser you are using. In terms of volumes, we estimate a contraction of global trade in 2020 to 12.7 billion metric tons or by 11.2% year-on-year. Trade will be an important ingredient here, along with fiscal and monetary policy. 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